July 5, 2025 – ayse nordal @linkedIn

1. Background

According to data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, there were 11 wars and 61 state-based armed conflicts in 2024.[1] Wars and armed conflicts caused significant loss of lives and many injuries, creating humanitarian challenges and impacting the human capital and productivity of the nations involved. According to the latest available figures, the number of casualties related to some of these conflicts is as follows: 400,000 in Ukraine, 56,000 in Palestine, 9,000 in Myanmar, 150,000 in Sudan, 300,000 in Ethiopia, 42,000 in DR Congo, 21,000 in Somalia, and 400,000 in Yemen.[2] This list is not exhaustive.

The primary risk of war is the loss of lives. However, there is also a long-term impact: irreversible damage to the climate and environment. This lasting damage will affect future generations. Further, environmental degradation and climate change caused by the conflicts can create a vicious cycle. They can initiate or contribute to conflicts, as seen in Syria.

Climate-related risks already affect our lives. According to the World Health Organization, approximately 3.6 billion people reside in areas highly affected by climate change. Between 2030-2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress. 37% of heat-related deaths are attributed to human-induced climate change. [3] Wars and conflicts are likely to increase these estimates.

2. The nature of impact

Throughout 2024 and 2025, numerous articles and research studies have examined the impact of conflicts, for instance, in Ukraine, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen, on the climate and environment.

Here are four examples of this impact:

A. Loss of forests

A study by PAX, using satellite imagery, machine learning, and open-source data, has identified a 20,4 % loss of tree cover in Syria during the period of 2012-2019 compared with baseline data before the conflict[4]. Loss of tree cover affects biodiversity and ecosystems. It leads to the extinction of the species and poses risks such as soil erosion and landslides.

Ukraine faces similar challenges. Deforestation and habitat destruction impact biodiversity. Approximately 1.7 million hectares of forests, constituting 15% of the total forest cover, are affected. The State Forest Resources Agency has reported the accumulation of solid waste and abandoned military equipment in forest areas, which releases heavy metals, radionuclides, and other toxic substances.[5]

B.      Marine resources and marine environment

Both the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea have suffered greatly due to ongoing wars. The destruction of coastal infrastructure, pollution from warfare, and discharge of untreated sewage led to the degradation of marine ecosystems. In Palestine, for instance, heavy bombardment has caused toxic waste runoff into the Mediterranean Sea, threatening the marine environment and fish stocks[6]. Similarly, the Black Sea has faced contamination due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with oil spills and hazardous chemicals.[7]

C.      Extinction of species

On June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Dnieper River in Ukraine was destroyed, resulting in uncontrolled water flow, and more than 40 different towns and villages were severely flooded. As a result of the drainage of the Kakhovka Reservoir, 11,400 tons of fish were lost. The Reservoir previously served as a habitat to at least 43 fish species. It was estimated that it would take at least 7-10 years to restore this loss.[8]

Gaza Valley is a vital route for migratory birds travelling between Africa, Europe, and the Americas. The Valley is at risk of losing 150 to 200 bird species, both endemic and migratory. Further, 20 species of mammals and 25 species of reptiles face the threat of complete extinction.[9]

In Sudan, the Darfur conflict has continued since 2003, threatening over 25 % of plant species and reducing wildlife populations like ostriches and giraffes.

The conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile has continued since 2011 and has caused the decline in the antelope population by up to 50 %.[10]

D.      Soil quality and food security

According to the United Nations, the humanitarian impact of the conflict has left over 17 million people, accounting for almost half of Yemen’s population, unable to meet their basic food needs.[11] Landmines and explosives play an important role in this situation. As of January 2023, there were 5,892 deployed anti-personnel mines and 134,632 anti-tank mines in Yemen. There were also 225,738 units of unexploded ordnance and 7,632 of other explosive devices. Yemen’s agriculture was severely affected by mines. 334 farms were destroyed, and 2,185 livestock was lost.[12] Planted mines contain toxic substances that can leak to the soil and water and create a long-term risk for Yemen.

Due to war, large areas in Ukraine were heavily bombed, and the country’s territory has been contaminated with mines and unexploded ammunition, which can release toxic elements such as lead, mercury, and arsenic into the soil. Ukraine’s Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research estimated that the war has degraded more than 10 million hectares of agricultural land so far.[13]

As of September 2024, approximately 67,6% of cropland, which amounts to over 10,183 hectares, has been damaged in Palestine, increasing the dependence on humanitarian aid[14].  Blockades disrupted the supply chains, hindering access to seeds, fertilizers, and agricultural machinery.

3.      Conclusion

Only a few examples of the ongoing damage created by wars and conflicts are mentioned above. Climate and environment-related risks are significant and cannot be overlooked. These risks must be identified, assessed, and evaluated. Wars and conflicts are important drivers of these risks. Wars and conflicts not only pose humanitarian threats but also long-term ecological dangers for future generations.

In his article for InterClimate network, Finlay Miller explores the link between climate change, drought, and the mass rural-to-urban migration that drove one and a half million Syrians to Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. These settlements were hotspots for poverty and political unrest. When the protests were met with force, the civil war began[15]. Risk managers should pay attention to the vicious cycle involving conflicts, negative impact on the climate and environment, and future conflicts. There is now enough research and background information to support these studies.

References

1.       Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Countries in Conflict. https://ucdp.uu.se/year/2024

2.       Shar Tarique Habib Countries at War in 2025: A Global Overview, June 24, 2025

3.       World Health Organization, Climate Change, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health, October 12, 2023

4.       Pax, Witnessing the Environmental Impacts of War, https://paxforpeace.nl/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/import/import/witnessing-the-environmental-impacts-of-war.pdf November 2020

5.       Belis, C. A., Petrosian, A., Turos, O., Maremuhka, T., Morhulova, V. et al., Status of environment and climate in Ukraine – Assessing the impact of war and its implications for reconstruction, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/6292177

6.       Hassoun Abdo, Hamad Ahmed, Iriqat Dalal, Nijim Mohammed, Bouchikh Yamina, Buheji Mohammed, Aldahdouh Tahani Z, –The implications of the ongoing war on Gaza for food sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100473 June 2025

7.       Kvach, Y., Stepien, C.A., Minicheva, G.G. et al. Biodiversity effects of the Russia–Ukraine War and the Kakhovka Dam destruction: ecological consequences and predictions for marine, estuarine, and freshwater communities in the northern Black Sea. Ecol Process 14, 22 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-025-00577-1 February 2025

8.       WDEO, Impacts of Wars on Biodiversity in Sudan https://www.wdeo-sudan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Impact-of-Wars-on-Biodiversity-in-Sudan.pdf 2024

9.       United Nations, Almost 40 million Yemenis have waited far too long https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159036

10.   Mohammed Sahar, Arab Reform Initiative, Yemen’s Environmental Crisis: The Forgotten Fallout of an Enduring Conflict, https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/yemens-environmental-crisis-the-forgotten-fallout-of-an-enduring-conflict/ June 2023

11.   Finlay Miller, InterClimate Network, https://interclimate.org/how-drought-linked-to-climate-change-helped-cause-the-syrian-civil-war/, 2025

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[1] https://ucdp.uu.se/year/2024

[2] Shar, Countries at War in 2025: A Global Overview

[3] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[4] https://paxforpeace.nl/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/import/import/witnessing-the-environmental-impacts-of-war.pdf

[5] Belis et al. EU Publications, Status of environment and climate in Ukraine, 04.2025 https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/6292177 p:58

[6] Hassoun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100473 p:7

[7] Belis et.al EU Publications, Op. cit. p:60

[8] Kvach et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-025-00577-1 p:17

[9] Hasoun et al. Op. Cit. p: 8

[10] https://www.wdeo-sudan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Impact-of-Wars-on-Biodiversity-in-Sudan.pdf

[11] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159036

[12] https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/yemens-environmental-crisis-the-forgotten-fallout-of-an-enduring-conflict/

[13] Belis et.al. Op.cit .p: 60

[14] Hassoun et. al. Op.cit. p: 9

[15] https://interclimate.org/how-drought-linked-to-climate-change-helped-cause-the-syrian-civil-war/